Noise a flaw in human judgment Cover Image

Noise [large print] : a flaw in human judgment / Daniel Kahneman, Olivier Sibony, Cass R. Sunstein.

Kahneman, Daniel, 1934-2024 (author.). Sibony, Olivier, (author.). Sunstein, Cass R., (author.).

Summary:

Discusses why people make bad judgements and how to make better ones by reducing the influence of "noise"--variables that can cause bias in decision making--and draws on examples in many fields, including medicine, law, economic forecasting, forensic science, strategy, and personnel selection.

Record details

ISBN: 9780316322270
ISBN: 031632227X
Physical Description: ix, 659 pages : illustrations ; 25 cm
Edition: First edition
Publisher: New York, NY : Little, Brown Spark, an imprint of Little, Brown and Company, a division of Hachette Book Group, Inc., 2021.
Copyright: ©2021

Content descriptions

Bibliography, etc. Note:

Includes bibliographical references (pages 607-655).

Formatted Contents Note:

Introduction: Two kinds of error -- Part I: Finding noise. Crime and noisy punishment -- A noisy system -- Singular decisions -- Part II: Your mind is a measuring instrument. Matters of judgment -- Measuring error -- The analysis of noise -- Occasion noise -- How groups amplify noise -- Part III: Noise in predictive judgments. Judgments and models -- Noiseless rules -- Objective ignorance -- The valley of the normal -- Part IV: How noise happens. Heuristics, biases, and noise -- The matching operation -- Scales -- Patterns -- The sources of noise -- Part V: Improving judgments. Better judges for better judgments -- Debiasing and decision hygiene -- Sequencing information in forensic science -- Selection and aggregation in forecasting -- Guidelines in medicine -- Defining the scale in performance ratings -- Structure in hiring -- The mediating assessments protocol -- Part VI: Optimal noise. The costs of noise reduction -- Dignity -- Rules or standards? -- Review and conclusion: Taking noise seriously -- Epilogue: A less noisy world -- Appendix A: How to conduct a noise audit -- Appendix B: A checklist for a decision observer -- Appendix C: Correcting predictions.